class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Breaking out of Legacy Mobilization Networks ] .subtitle[ ## How the Internet Reaches and Activates the Politically Disengaged ] .author[ ### Francesco Bailo (University of Sydney) ] .institute[ ### Institute for Culture and Society - Western Sydney University ] .date[ ### 24 October 2023 ] --- layout: true <div style="position: absolute;left:60px;bottom:11px;color:gray;"><small><small><small><a href = 'https://fraba.github.io/presentation/2024-WSU/'>fraba.github.io/presentation/2024-WSU <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;position:relative;display:inline-block;top:.1em;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M326.612 185.391c59.747 59.809 58.927 155.698.36 214.59-.11.12-.24.25-.36.37l-67.2 67.2c-59.27 59.27-155.699 59.262-214.96 0-59.27-59.26-59.27-155.7 0-214.96l37.106-37.106c9.84-9.84 26.786-3.3 27.294 10.606.648 17.722 3.826 35.527 9.69 52.721 1.986 5.822.567 12.262-3.783 16.612l-13.087 13.087c-28.026 28.026-28.905 73.66-1.155 101.96 28.024 28.579 74.086 28.749 102.325.51l67.2-67.19c28.191-28.191 28.073-73.757 0-101.83-3.701-3.694-7.429-6.564-10.341-8.569a16.037 16.037 0 0 1-6.947-12.606c-.396-10.567 3.348-21.456 11.698-29.806l21.054-21.055c5.521-5.521 14.182-6.199 20.584-1.731a152.482 152.482 0 0 1 20.522 17.197zM467.547 44.449c-59.261-59.262-155.69-59.27-214.96 0l-67.2 67.2c-.12.12-.25.25-.36.37-58.566 58.892-59.387 154.781.36 214.59a152.454 152.454 0 0 0 20.521 17.196c6.402 4.468 15.064 3.789 20.584-1.731l21.054-21.055c8.35-8.35 12.094-19.239 11.698-29.806a16.037 16.037 0 0 0-6.947-12.606c-2.912-2.005-6.64-4.875-10.341-8.569-28.073-28.073-28.191-73.639 0-101.83l67.2-67.19c28.239-28.239 74.3-28.069 102.325.51 27.75 28.3 26.872 73.934-1.155 101.96l-13.087 13.087c-4.35 4.35-5.769 10.79-3.783 16.612 5.864 17.194 9.042 34.999 9.69 52.721.509 13.906 17.454 20.446 27.294 10.606l37.106-37.106c59.271-59.259 59.271-155.699.001-214.959z"></path></svg></a></small></small></small></div> --- ## Access slides here <svg viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;display:inline-block;position:fixed;top:10;right:10;" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"> <path d="M326.612 185.391c59.747 59.809 58.927 155.698.36 214.59-.11.12-.24.25-.36.37l-67.2 67.2c-59.27 59.27-155.699 59.262-214.96 0-59.27-59.26-59.27-155.7 0-214.96l37.106-37.106c9.84-9.84 26.786-3.3 27.294 10.606.648 17.722 3.826 35.527 9.69 52.721 1.986 5.822.567 12.262-3.783 16.612l-13.087 13.087c-28.026 28.026-28.905 73.66-1.155 101.96 28.024 28.579 74.086 28.749 102.325.51l67.2-67.19c28.191-28.191 28.073-73.757 0-101.83-3.701-3.694-7.429-6.564-10.341-8.569a16.037 16.037 0 0 1-6.947-12.606c-.396-10.567 3.348-21.456 11.698-29.806l21.054-21.055c5.521-5.521 14.182-6.199 20.584-1.731a152.482 152.482 0 0 1 20.522 17.197zM467.547 44.449c-59.261-59.262-155.69-59.27-214.96 0l-67.2 67.2c-.12.12-.25.25-.36.37-58.566 58.892-59.387 154.781.36 214.59a152.454 152.454 0 0 0 20.521 17.196c6.402 4.468 15.064 3.789 20.584-1.731l21.054-21.055c8.35-8.35 12.094-19.239 11.698-29.806a16.037 16.037 0 0 0-6.947-12.606c-2.912-2.005-6.64-4.875-10.341-8.569-28.073-28.073-28.191-73.639 0-101.83l67.2-67.19c28.239-28.239 74.3-28.069 102.325.51 27.75 28.3 26.872 73.934-1.155 101.96l-13.087 13.087c-4.35 4.35-5.769 10.79-3.783 16.612 5.864 17.194 9.042 34.999 9.69 52.721.509 13.906 17.454 20.446 27.294 10.606l37.106-37.106c59.271-59.259 59.271-155.699.001-214.959z"></path></svg> </br></br></br></br></br></br> .center[.large[[fraba.github.io/presentation/2024-WSU](https://fraba.github.io/presentation/2024-WSU/)]] </br></br></br></br> <p style = "font-size: 80px"> ↙</p> --- ## Introduction ### Research Problem - Question: How can the Internet contribute to mobilise disengaged voters outside traditional political networks? - Background: **Decline** of traditional party mobilisation and rise of **anti-establishment parties** - Focus: Internet as a tool for organising outside traditional networks --- ## Traditional Mobilisation Networks ### The Role of Social Capital in Politics - Voluntary associations provide civic skills and recruitment networks - Mass parties used to mobilise in low social capital areas - Decline of these networks after 1960s, with shrinking voter turnout - Anti-party-system parties emerged but failed to build dense mobilisation networks --- ## Internet as an Alternative Mobilisation Tool ### Internet Affordances for Political Action - Facilitates the spread of information at scale - Reduces coordination costs for collective action - However, lacks dense, strong-tie networks found in social capital - Online networks are more individualised and less reciprocal (Internet-mediated social networks have a lower degree of overlap) --- ## Social Capital vs Internet Capital .pull-left[ .content-box-green[ ### Social Capital **Definition**: The networks of relationships, trust, and norms that facilitate collective action within a community. **Characteristics**: - Dense, reciprocal, and strong social ties (constrained by geography). - Traditionally linked to voluntary associations, civic participation, and political engagement. - Fosters political mobilisation through established, face-to-face networks. ] ] .pull-right[ .content-box-purple[ ### Internet Capital **Definition**: The ability to mobilise and engage individuals through online platforms, *independently* from existing social networks. **Characteristics**: - Broad, weak-tie networks that connect geographically dispersed individuals. - Lowers the barriers to political participation by reducing coordination costs. - Facilitates rapid diffusion of information but lacks the depth of traditional social capital relationships. ] ] --- ## Hypotheses Overview ### Hypothesis 1: Internet vs. Social Capital Networks - Internet-mediated coordination is more challenging in the absence of social capital ### Hypothesis 2: Media's Role in Mobilisation - News media attention can temporarily boost Interne-mediated coordination of collective action outside of pre-existing social capital networks ### Hypothesis 3: Diffusion of Political Expertise - Internet can mirror the role of legacy networks in mobilising voters by diffusing political expertise --- ## Case Study - Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S) ### Overview of M5S - Anti-establishment, populist, and Internet-centred political party - Founded by Beppe Grillo in 2005 via his blog - Intensive use of Meetup.com to organise events and grassroots support .center[<img src = 'https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/V-day_bologna_02.jpg/800px-V-day_bologna_02.jpg' width = '40%'></img>] --- ## Timeline of M5S development, 2005–2018 .content-box-yellow[ - **2005**: Beppe Grillo launches "Friends of Beppe Grillo" meetups via his blog, encouraging local coordination through Meetup.com. - **2007**: V-Day campaign collects 336,000 signatures for electoral reform, marking the movement’s first large-scale mobilisation. - **2009**: The Five Star Movement (M5S) is officially launched. - **2012**: M5S wins multiple mayoral elections in Northern Italy, including Parma, and gains national prominence. - **2013**: M5S becomes Italy’s largest single party, winning 25.6% of the vote in the general election. - **2014**: M5S secures 17 MEPs in the European Parliament elections. - **2018**: M5S wins 32.7% of the vote in the general election, forming a coalition government with the League. ] --- ## Data and Methods ### Overview of Datasets - Data Sources: Meetup.com API, Italian census, and electoral data. - Temporal Scope: Focus on the period from 2005 to 2018 - Analytical Approach: Spatial and temporal analysis of Internet-enabled grassroots organisations ### Key variables .content-box-green[ - **RSVP numbers** refer to the number of people who confirm their participation in an event organised on-site using Meetup.com. - **Staff of not-for-profit associations** is a measure for the local density of social capital. ] --- ## Bayesian Spatial Modelling ### Analytical Methodology - Bayesian spatial models used to estimate the impact of geographic diffusion of social capital and Meetup activity - Captures neighbouring effects and residual spatial autocorrelation --- .center[<img src = 'img/meetup-geo-event-1.jpeg' width = '40%'> *Geocoded meetup events present in the data*] --- ## Two periods of M5S mobilisation on Meetup.com Period 1: Mobilisation between **2007 (V-Day)** and **2012 (First local elections)** Period 2: Mobilisation between 2012 and **2013 (General election)** .center[<img src = 'img/change-points-1.svg' width = '70%'> *Estimation of change points in the time series of RSVPs (for M5S events) weekly counts*] --- ## Research Questions - **RQ1**: Does social capital predict where Meetups are organised? - **RQ2**: How does media attention alter Meetup activity? - **RQ3**: Does the spread of Meetups predict voting patterns? - **RQ4**: Does the local presence of Meetups predict an average increase in the frequency of political talks? - **RQ5**: Among voters disconnected from social capital networks, do M5S voters engage more frequently than non-M5S voters in political discussions? --- ## Meetup.com as example of Internet Capital - Connecting independently from exiting social networks .center[<img src ='img/figure_1.png' width = '45%'></img>] *Meetup.com home page as of July 2005 (Source: The Internet Archive).* --- ## Hypothesis 1 - Social Capital Networks ### The Role of Social Capital in Early Mobilisation - Social capital enhances connectedness and political competence - Legacy networks historically provide the framework for political participation - Initial M5S mobilisation concentrated in areas with high social capital .content-box-green[ **Legacy networks** refer to traditional, long-established systems of social, political, or organisational connections that facilitate mobilisation and coordination. In the context of politics, legacy networks often include established institutions such as **political parties, civic associations, unions**, and other long-standing organisations that have historically played a central role in engaging citizens, fostering trust, and encouraging political participation. ] --- ## Results - Meetup Activity (RQ1) .center[<img src ='img/rq1.svg'></img>] ### Early Mobilisation Tied to Social Capital - Geospatial analysis shows high correlation between social capital and Meetup activity from 2005–2012 - Social capital provided organisational strength in early years of M5S development --- ## Hypothesis 2 - Role of Media Attention ### Media's Influence on Expanding Mobilisation - As media attention grew, M5S mobilisation spread beyond high social capital areas - Media attention amplified visibility and political conversations - Key period: 2012, M5S electoral success and spike in media attention --- .center[<img src ='img/h2.svg'></img> *Timeseries of Meetup RSVPs, news media attention variables and posterior means for the staff of not-for-profit association predicting RSVPs.*] --- ## Results - Media Impact (RQ2) ### Media and Meetup Diffusion Post-2012 - Meetup activity spread to areas with lower social capital after 2012 - Media attention reduced the reliance on existing social capital networks - Indication of two distinct waves of mobilisation (pre- and post-2012) --- ## Hypothesis 3 - Diffusion of Political Expertise ### Internet's Role in Spreading Political Expertise - Internet-enabled "islands of political expertise" emerged in areas outside of traditional social capital - Disengaged voters became more politically engaged through Internet platforms --- ## Results - Voting Patterns (RQ3) ### Impact of Meetup Activity on M5S Voting - Strong positive association between second-wave Meetup activity (post-2012) and M5S votes in 2013 - Areas with new Meetup activity saw higher voting percentages for M5S --- .center[<img src ='img/rq3.svg'></img> *Spatial areal unit modelling for M5S vote in 2013*] --- ## Political Discussion Increase (RQ4) ### Meetups and Increased Political Discussion - Meetup activity correlated with an increase in political discussions among local voters - Areas with more Meetups saw higher engagement in political conversations leading to the 2013 election --- .center[<img src ='img/rq4.png' width = '100%'></img> *Coefficients and confidence intervals resulting from the regression model of survey responses (n=1382) predicting the frequency of political talks.* ] --- ## Voters Disconnected from Legacy Networks (RQ5) ### M5S Mobilisation of Disengaged Voters - In the 2013 general election, - M5S voters who were *disconnected* from legacy mobilisation networks - reported discussing politics significantly *more frequently* - than non-M5S voters disconnected from legacy mobilisation networks --- .center[<img src ='img/rq5.svg'></img> *Frequency of political talk within and outside legacy mobilization networks among those expressing high political discontent (n=660).*] --- ## Social Capital vs. Internet Networks ### Conceptual Activation Model - Traditional social capital networks foster tight-knit, high-influence ties - Internet networks allow for broader, more distributed, but weaker ties --- .center[<img src ='img/internet_capital_illustration.svg'></img> *Theoretical activation model for local collective action*] --- ## Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of Meetups ### Evolution of Meetup Events Over Time - First wave: Mobilisation driven by legacy networks - Second wave: Mobilisation driven by Internet, independent of social capital --- ## Significance of Homemakers in Second Wave ### Socio-Demographic Shift in Mobilisation - Post-2012, homemakers in economically weaker areas became key participants in Meetups - Indicates a demographic shift from highly educated, high-capital areas to more diverse, disengaged regions --- ## The Role of Media in Internet-Driven Movements ### Importance of Media Validation - Media attention amplifies the reach of Internet-based movements - Internet movements still rely on traditional media for legitimacy and widespread impact --- ## Key Findings ### Summary of Key Insights - Internet-enabled networks can bypass traditional social capital constraints - Media plays a critical role in sustaining Internet-driven mobilisation - Diffusion of political expertise occurs even in disengaged, low-capital areas (something that is of course critical to disengage discontent) --- ## Limitations of the Study ### Study Constraints and Considerations - Ecological fallacy due to aggregation of spatial data - Use of RSVP numbers as proxies for participation - Lack of internal efficacy measures in survey data --- ## Broader Theoretical Contributions - **Diversifying Participation**: The Internet opens participation to more diverse demographics, rapidly redefining political engagement patterns. - **Political Unpredictability**: Internet-mediated mobilisation can emerge quickly and challenge existing geographic and demographic cleavages, leading to greater political turbulence. - **Discontent and Mobilisation**: Extreme levels of political discontent may be necessary to effectively activate Internet capital, crowding out more moderate forms of politics.