Online and offline social capital as catalyst for political mobilisation

.title[
# Online and offline social capital as catalyst for political mobilisation
]
.subtitle[
## The case of digital native political parties
]
.author[
### Francesco Bailo (University of Sydney), Antonella Seddone (Università di Torino), Giulia Sandri (Université Catholique de Lille)
]
.institute[
### ECPR General Conference 2023
4 – 8 September, Charles University
]
.date[
### updated: 2023-09-06
]

---

<div style="position: absolute;left:60px;bottom:11px;color:gray;">Slides: fraba.github.io/presentation/2023-ECPR</div>

---

## Justification

* Studies conducted before the massification of the ICTs have estimated that about 80% of those joining a political movement had pre-existing connections with people already in the movement.

* A substantial body of research point to the important function that social capital plays in explaining participation.

Intuitively and all considered, 
  
  1. *Specialised* personal connections to political and non-political associations facilitate political engagement: they signal *interest* and *experience* and provide *coordination*.    
  
    * We refer to these specialised connections as **social capital**.
  
  2. Personal connections with the movement increase chances of mobilisation: they provide *motivation*, *validation*, and *coordination*.
    
### How does this change in the case of a digital native party (i.e. the Five Star Movement)?

---

## Research questions (and some answers for priming...)

#### 1. How important are pre-existing networks in recruitment?

* They are still very important. Yet, over time
    
    1. *Personal connections* maintain **strong and stable importance**;
    
    2. *Social capital* shows a **decline in relative importance**.

#### 2. Do we find any differences between participants with existing networks (personal ties and/or social capital) and participants without networks ?

* Yes!
  
    1. Direct, Internet-mediated communication from the leadership is a **more important factor** for joining in the absence of existing networks (personal ties and/or social capital).
    
    2. Participant with social capital sustain their engagement **more intensively and for longer**.  
    
---

## How we operationalise social capital variables?

* **Political social capital** Experience *before first meeting* in the Five Star Movement (M5S)  in

* Parties and volunteer associations (international issues, environment)
  
* **Non-political social capital** Experience *before first meeting* in the Five Star Movement (M5S)  in

* Any other type of non-religious association (professional, union, cultural, sport)

* **Social capital** (broad): **Political social capital** OR **Non-political social capital**
  
### All social capital variables are binary variables.

---

## Data

### Two online surveys

* 2013 survey (n=626): **snowballing** at grass-roots level

* 2020 survey (n=698): **snowballing** at grass-root level + **Facebook ads**

<div class="alert alert-info" style = "position: relative;
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    Yes, limitations do apply!
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class: inverse, center, middle

# Findings

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## The role of news

#### How do you mobilise outside of personal or social capital networks?

#### First, you gotta get the news that something is going on!

---

Importance of news about the M5S from mainstream media in the decision to join the M5S (2020 survey)

---

## Before and after 2012

- News media attention for the M5S dramatically increases in 2012 with the first (local) electoral successes.

- The importance of news as factor shaping the decision to join increases after 2012 to plateu.

For this reason,

### We divide our samples based on whether the first meeting was before or after 2012.

.center[<img src = 'https://www.lastampa.it/image/contentid/policy:1.36260100:1561813986/11IR5CPR3484--640x360.jpg?f=gallery_1280&h=702&w=1280&$p$f$h$w=2617957' width = '45%'></img>]

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Personal networks (before joining)

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Proportion of new members declaring to have personal connections with members already in the group before joining (2020 survey)

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Coefficients of predictors for the existence of personal connection with members of the local group before joining (survey 2020)

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class: inverse, middle, center

## Social capital networks (before joining)

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Proportion of M5S activists by **year of first meeting** and by **type of social capital access** before joining the M5

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Coefficient and confidence intervals predicting the three types of social capital (2020 survey)

---
class: inverse, center, middle

## Demographics before and after 2012

---
Evolution of key demographics before and after 2012 (2013 survey)

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Evolution of key demographics before and after 2012 (2020 survey)

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class: inverse, center, middle

## Motivations to join based on presence of social capital networks

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Average degree of importance of motivational factors **for joining the M5S** (2020 survey)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

## The role of social capital in predicting intensity and length of participation

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Coefficient and confidence intervals predicting the intensity of participation and whether still active or not (2020 survey)

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Coefficient and confidence intervals predicting the intensity of participation (2013 survey)

---
### Summary of results (if time allows)

#### Even in the presence of an Internet-mediated mobilisation, social networks are critical for recruitment.

- 62-64% join via personal connection
  
- 92% joining report personal connection and/or social capital
  
#### Yet, shift in role of social capital

- Declined from 97% to 77% post-2012

- Diverse activists, yet social capital still predicts engagement

#### Leadership's impact

- Crucial for recruits lacking social capital

- Predicts sustained engagement
  
---

## The Internet and the mobilisation of a digital native party: Take-home lessson

- **Positive Impact**

- Contribute to diversify participant pool
  
  - Reaches individuals without other political resources
  
  - Potentially amplifies effect of personal (non-social capital) networks
  
- **How**

- Importance of news media attention
  
  - Importance of direct Internet-mediated communication from the (charismatic) leadership

- **Limitations - Marginality of Impact**

- Majority of new recruits have other political experiences
  
  - Social capital is still crucial for intensity of engagement and retention

---
class: center, middle

# The End

Comments & questions

<a>francesco.bailo@sydney.edu.au</a>